“A decision is an irrevocable allocation of resources”
prof. emiritus dr. Jac Geurts
In case uncertainties are high, it is often wiser to think big (in terms of ambition and long term objectives), but make small actionable steps avoiding wasting time, money, creativity of your best people and management attention.
But, once in a while the small steps are taken and now a big decision has to be made often involving a lot of people, money and time.
Basically, there are two sources of uncertainties in complex decision making.
- Uncertainties related to lack of knowledge (related to technology or market development)
- Uncertainties related to the interaction between players (for example: if we enter the market with this new service, how will the customers, but also our competitors and business partners respond?)
|For the knowledge related uncertainties, a methodology called Strategic Decision Analysis is used.|
|For interaction related uncertainties a methodology called Preference Trees is used|