Approach 3: Making Strategic Decisions and Dealing with Uncertainties

A decision is an irrevocable allocation of resources

prof. emiritus dr. Jac Geurts

In case uncertainties are high, it is often wiser to think big (in terms of ambition and long term objectives), but make small actionable steps avoiding wasting time, money, creativity of your best people and management attention.

But, once high impact decisions have to be made impacting a lot of people, money and time.

If the focus is on content, Strategic Decision Analysis is used.
  • Decisions and decision options are identified
  • Decision criteria are chosen
  • Decisions structure is identified (one can not make a decision in one area, without implicitly deciding in another area)
  • Uncertainties and decisions are translated into scenarios with a certain probability and outcome
  • And finally risk return plots are generated for different strategies
Example: Technology decisions
If the focus is on stakeholder interaction, Preference Tree Analysis (based on Game Theory) is used
  • Key players are identified
  • Possible moves are identified for each of the players
  • The preferences of all the moves from all players are determined
  • Software is availabe to analyse scenarios
Example: Mergers & Acquisitions, (multi-player)-negotiations

Preference Trees Analysis